Selling Certainty in Uncertain Times
By Maria Perille
July 28, 2009
Let’s face it. We’re still in an economic crisis. We can be sure of that.
There were 467,000 jobs lost last month alone, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 10% by the end of the year. The number of housing foreclosures in the first half of this year was up 15% from last year. Real GDP fell 5.5% in the first quarter. Retail sales in the second quarter were down 9.6% from last year. Construction spending is 11.7% below what it was the same time last year. The Dow is still down 3.8% for the year.
We can be certain of these bleak statistics, but in the current economic climate, we cannot be certain of much else. Will you still have your job next month? Maybe. Will the value of your house and assets endure the unpredictable housing market? Perhaps. Is your money safe in the stock market? Possibly. Will you be able to send your kids to college? Hopefully.
If only the answer to all of the above questions was one simple word: absolutely. Imagine how reassuring life would be. Everything would be definitive and clear-cut. There would be no need to worry… right?
Absolutely. Welcome to the newest trend in semantics. According to a recent CNN article, “absolutely” is currently one of the most overused words in the English language. Whereas in the past people tended to employ phrases such as “sure” or “sounds good,” now business professionals and the president alike are infatuated with sounding positively certain of themselves.
At first, it seems ironic that this fixation with certainty abounds at a time when our economy could not be any more uncertain. Yet, it makes perfect sense. In these uncertain times, people crave certainty and definitiveness. By using a word that exudes so much confidence and assurance, individuals can strive to forget how uncertain their situation and answers actually are.
The ploy of selling certainty has bled into the marketing sphere. Marketers are seducing consumers by selling a desired sense of certainty with their products. Enter Walmart: plastered across the end of each aisle is the one infamous yet alluring phrase, “Unbeatable Prices.” Most individuals would acknowledge that Walmart does sell products at low prices, but not everything at Walmart is cheaper than it is at your local grocer. Walmart perpetuates the perception that every product is absolutely the cheapest you will ever find it. And consumers buy it. Even if consumers know that there is a possibility that they could find a particular good cheaper somewhere else, they are sold on the reassuring sense of (false) confidence that is embedded in Walmart’s “Unbeatable Prices.” When so much is uncertain in their lives, individuals do not hesitate in their pursuit of illusory certainty.
Walmart is not alone in selling certainty. Even the car industry, whose future might be the most uncertain right now, is using a similar approach. Hyundai unveiled its “Assurance” campaign earlier this year, which guarantees that if you lose your income in the next year, you can return your Hyundai car without any penalties. Their effective ad campaign eliminates any question of whether you can afford your vehicle with the concrete answer, “absolutely.” By “providing another kind of confidence,” Hyundai has increased its U.S. market share and prospered in an industry that is otherwise suffering. How has Hyundai managed to do this? It’s simple… by selling certainty to uncertain consumers.
Walmart’s and Hyundai’s marketing campaigns are so effective because they tap into a basic human behavioral insight. We find certainty appealing. As the academic literature illustrates, individuals weigh outcomes that are certain much more heavily than those that are only probable (Tversky & Kahneman, 1986). For example, imagine you must choose between the following two options: you have a 100% chance of winning $30 or an 80% chance of winning $45. The expected outcome for the latter option is actually higher ($36), so according to expected utility theory, we would predict more people would choose the second gamble. Yet, individuals prefer the certainty of winning a smaller amount much more. People are essentially willing to pay a premium for this added certainty because of its emotional pull.
For marketers, “selling certainty” need not be an act of deception. Marketers can and should responsibly use the knowledge that consumers crave certainty by producing products that meet this human need and effectively communicating the value of that certainty in the marketplace. If your product provides certainty in some way, then by all means, communicate and capitalize on that. If you are in the business of financial planning, for example, emphasize the certainty that consumers will achieve as a result of using your services. Consumers can actually benefit from this genuine source of certainty rather than simply the false sense of certainty that they may get elsewhere.
For the consumer being inundated with messages of certainty in uncertain times, the overuse of the word “absolutely,” buying groceries at “unbeatable prices,” and purchasing a car with an “Assurance” plan can be comforting and reassuring. But be wary of this fleeting illusion. At some point, we have to recognize that everything is not that absolute. Is it really worth buying more than what we need just to pleasantly reinforce a false sense of confidence in our decisions? Absolutely… I mean maybe…. not.
References
Blake, J. (2009, July 15). Is ‘absolutely’ overused? Absolutely! CNN. Retrieved July 16, 2009, from http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/wayoflife/07/14/absolutely/index.html
Economic Indicators Archive. (n.d.). The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved July 20, 2009, from http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-indicate.html?mod=topnav_2_3024
Elliot, H. (2009, June 23). Year of the Hyundai. Forbes. Retrieved July 20, 2009, from http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/23/hyundai-automobiles-krafcik-business-autos-hyundai.html
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. The Journal of Business, 59, S251-S278.
There were 467,000 jobs lost last month alone, and the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 10% by the end of the year. The number of housing foreclosures in the first half of this year was up 15% from last year. Real GDP fell 5.5% in the first quarter. Retail sales in the second quarter were down 9.6% from last year. Construction spending is 11.7% below what it was the same time last year. The Dow is still down 3.8% for the year.
We can be certain of these bleak statistics, but in the current economic climate, we cannot be certain of much else. Will you still have your job next month? Maybe. Will the value of your house and assets endure the unpredictable housing market? Perhaps. Is your money safe in the stock market? Possibly. Will you be able to send your kids to college? Hopefully.
If only the answer to all of the above questions was one simple word: absolutely. Imagine how reassuring life would be. Everything would be definitive and clear-cut. There would be no need to worry… right?
Absolutely. Welcome to the newest trend in semantics. According to a recent CNN article, “absolutely” is currently one of the most overused words in the English language. Whereas in the past people tended to employ phrases such as “sure” or “sounds good,” now business professionals and the president alike are infatuated with sounding positively certain of themselves.
At first, it seems ironic that this fixation with certainty abounds at a time when our economy could not be any more uncertain. Yet, it makes perfect sense. In these uncertain times, people crave certainty and definitiveness. By using a word that exudes so much confidence and assurance, individuals can strive to forget how uncertain their situation and answers actually are.
The ploy of selling certainty has bled into the marketing sphere. Marketers are seducing consumers by selling a desired sense of certainty with their products. Enter Walmart: plastered across the end of each aisle is the one infamous yet alluring phrase, “Unbeatable Prices.” Most individuals would acknowledge that Walmart does sell products at low prices, but not everything at Walmart is cheaper than it is at your local grocer. Walmart perpetuates the perception that every product is absolutely the cheapest you will ever find it. And consumers buy it. Even if consumers know that there is a possibility that they could find a particular good cheaper somewhere else, they are sold on the reassuring sense of (false) confidence that is embedded in Walmart’s “Unbeatable Prices.” When so much is uncertain in their lives, individuals do not hesitate in their pursuit of illusory certainty.
Walmart is not alone in selling certainty. Even the car industry, whose future might be the most uncertain right now, is using a similar approach. Hyundai unveiled its “Assurance” campaign earlier this year, which guarantees that if you lose your income in the next year, you can return your Hyundai car without any penalties. Their effective ad campaign eliminates any question of whether you can afford your vehicle with the concrete answer, “absolutely.” By “providing another kind of confidence,” Hyundai has increased its U.S. market share and prospered in an industry that is otherwise suffering. How has Hyundai managed to do this? It’s simple… by selling certainty to uncertain consumers.
Walmart’s and Hyundai’s marketing campaigns are so effective because they tap into a basic human behavioral insight. We find certainty appealing. As the academic literature illustrates, individuals weigh outcomes that are certain much more heavily than those that are only probable (Tversky & Kahneman, 1986). For example, imagine you must choose between the following two options: you have a 100% chance of winning $30 or an 80% chance of winning $45. The expected outcome for the latter option is actually higher ($36), so according to expected utility theory, we would predict more people would choose the second gamble. Yet, individuals prefer the certainty of winning a smaller amount much more. People are essentially willing to pay a premium for this added certainty because of its emotional pull.
For marketers, “selling certainty” need not be an act of deception. Marketers can and should responsibly use the knowledge that consumers crave certainty by producing products that meet this human need and effectively communicating the value of that certainty in the marketplace. If your product provides certainty in some way, then by all means, communicate and capitalize on that. If you are in the business of financial planning, for example, emphasize the certainty that consumers will achieve as a result of using your services. Consumers can actually benefit from this genuine source of certainty rather than simply the false sense of certainty that they may get elsewhere.
For the consumer being inundated with messages of certainty in uncertain times, the overuse of the word “absolutely,” buying groceries at “unbeatable prices,” and purchasing a car with an “Assurance” plan can be comforting and reassuring. But be wary of this fleeting illusion. At some point, we have to recognize that everything is not that absolute. Is it really worth buying more than what we need just to pleasantly reinforce a false sense of confidence in our decisions? Absolutely… I mean maybe…. not.
References
Blake, J. (2009, July 15). Is ‘absolutely’ overused? Absolutely! CNN. Retrieved July 16, 2009, from http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/wayoflife/07/14/absolutely/index.html
Economic Indicators Archive. (n.d.). The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved July 20, 2009, from http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-indicate.html?mod=topnav_2_3024
Elliot, H. (2009, June 23). Year of the Hyundai. Forbes. Retrieved July 20, 2009, from http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/23/hyundai-automobiles-krafcik-business-autos-hyundai.html
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. The Journal of Business, 59, S251-S278.
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