Holiday 2009 Shopping Outlook: Good, Bad or Ugly?

While consumer confidence is showing signs of an uptick, retailers are remaining cautiously optimistic for a decent holiday season. The National Retail Federation has projected holiday sales (sales made during November and December) will fall by a modest 1% this year. Clearly a projection in the upward direction would be preferable, but in these times, flat is the new growth, so shouldn’t we be jumping for joy?  Not really, when you consider the self-reported data that reflects a changing sentiment around shopping. Consider these facts:
– 57% of non-affluent households surveyed in the September First Command Financial Behaviors Index (conducted by Sentient on behalf of our client First Command) say they will spend less on gifts this holiday season.
– 42% in the same survey say they will manage their spending by setting a maximum dollar amount on gifts, while 41% will give fewer gifts to each person and 39% will give gifts to fewer people.
Even the affluent have adopted a more conservative approach to gift-giving: in a Wall Street Journal article on a recent American Express Publishing poll 21% said they will spend less on holiday shopping this year.
In a report this summer we identified a continuum of financial attitudes and behaviors around the concept of frugality. “True frugality” being an innate sense of frugalness with frugal behaviors to match- regardless of the economy, and “fair weather frugality,” a cutting back out of necessity but with no underlying value on frugalness. We’re tracking this frugality monthly and see shifts that are consistent with market indicators such as consumer confidence and the stock market. It’s clear that frugality has made inroads into the collective consciousness of US consumers –  at least, that consumers want to think of themselves as frugal. So, we wait with bated breath for this season’s holiday shopping sales data to learn how deep this frugality really runs.